P day - usually a trend day - trade once - find the trend and enter -
Trades
trend day against a quartile: above = up ... below = down.
All charts for the day with commentary and QnA at end.
AT this point Alan lost his notes on his charts and started posting over some of his older charts.
The following chart will display in a separate window when clicked:
http://www.charts.dacharts.com/2005-04-20/mbh4buffy01.png
For my style of trading, I'm expecting a trend day off the cycle but no idea
which way. I have some thoughts, but nothing concrete. When bar 10 was low
of day (LOD), I knew from then the trend was down because it was lod against
a down line, the lower part of the channel was established. All we needed
was an up channel line to sell but we still don't know where that line is.
So, we need to begin stalking - waiting for the setup. The line that became
the high channel is irrelevant. It is what happened prior that's important.
Bar 16 took out two zones. We immediately know we are coming back there.
The market has spoken twice....we need one more signal. Price hit channel
and got rejected, The market has spoken 3 times.
mbh: you have your cycle day...your channel...your warnings...use them...
mbh: After that....fade the trend for scalps only if you must or just keep hitting the trend line proximity until you get stopped out.
16:13 amg: alan, is there any thing you notice when price goes say, two boxes below the "center", like it did today on ES - to me, it's equivalent to a wide range day
6:15 mbh: If you re are trading the trend, yes scalp long back into it but know where the trend is. Then re establish shorts - to fight trend...make sure its miles away
16:15 amg: so really, it's just giving more room to continue trend trades
16:15 mbh: yes exactly
6:18 Franko: Alan, 17 was rejection. What bar would you enter short on after that?
16:19 mbh: 18 frank..you go there... so many warnings...biggest was LOD at down line
16:19 Franko: ok
16:19 gizmo: at 13:50 the price closed above a downline, is this exit for short or ok as channel is 2 lines wide?
16:21 mbh: you must ask yourself which line you using? If you prefer to trade less often, your stop is your entry line...that line is middle band. For me..I was trading across all of them but I knew where that dominant line was and I knew where the lower band was.
16:24 punkt_bit: mbh, about that 13.50 bar...it was not a valid long also because the next bar opened lower?
16:25 mbh: it was ok to long punk. But if you long it, you are longing in the middle of the true channel - awful place to be the middle. I tried it and lost and so I should. Eventually I just returned to trend trading.
16:28 mbh: tomorrow V look for two moves and a good close.
Many thanks to you Alan for taking the time to share your knowledge with all
of us.