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NN QnA, Map, Forex Data, Forecasting/Trading Caps |
December 6 , 2006
16:31 Ensign Howard: Welcome to today's training class.... hope you all have had a good week.
16:32 Ensign Howard: Last week we covered the Bradley Stock Model which is a data file that can be downloaded now from the Ensign web site and overlaid on the INDU chart. Were there any subsequent questions about that topic that needs to be covered?
16:33 Ensign Howard: OK, we will move along then.
16:34 Ensign Howard: In the November Trading Tips issue we covered the Larry Pesavento presentation given at the Traders Expo in Las Vegas. He demonstrated the use of his trading methods, which included the use his proprietary Neural Net for timing considerations. I have had several inquiries about whether Larry's NN is included in Ensign.
16:35 Ensign Howard: This Q&A is the answer to the question:
http://www.ensignsupport.com/email/1413.mhtml
16:36 Ensign Howard: The closest thing to the NN is the Pesavento Map, which is a fantastic tool that is under utilized.
16:36 Ensign Howard: Any questions about using the Map study?
16:37 Ensign Howard: The Map and the NN are using different mathematics to accomplish similar end purposes of giving curve based on probabilities into the future for the primary use of showing the time of turns.
16:38 Ensign Howard: I have not done a comparison study to know whether one is better than the other. Part of the reason for the lack of a comparison is that 'goodness' of fit is in the eye of the beholder. It has been a real challenge to invent a way to compare similar curves to decide if one is superior than another, and if one is better, why is it better.
6:41 Ensign Howard: This kind of reminds me of the day I was helping my dad brand calves, and we branded one ugly speckled calf, and when I commented that it sure was an ugly calf, my dad said 'there never was a cow who had an ugly calf'. So beauty, or goodness of use, is often seen in the eye of the beholder.
16:42 Ensign Howard: And this is kind of like a lot of the tools and studies that are used in great variety by many of you. Some have a feel for the tool or its visual..... it speaks to them.... and yet in the eye of another user it might just look like confusion.
16:44 Ensign Howard: I have seen some conversation that bordered on criticism where the user with the ego is telling everyone they need to clean everything off of their charts, and look at them the way he looks at them. From my perspective, each should listen to their own music, hang their own art work, dress the charts with the studies and tools that they like.
16:45 Ensign Howard: The end objective, is to make some money, and not to prove that your way of doing things is the right way or the only way.
16:46 Ensign Howard: So, is the Map a great tool..... yes it is, but that 'yes' may be in the eye of some users and not for others. Is the Neural Net a great tool... same answer..... some will swear by it while others swear at it.
16:47 Ensign Howard: Personally, I think both are great tools, they are unique in that they attempt to show a prediction of the future. That makes them rare among studies. Few tools attempt to peer into the future and make any claims about what will happen, particularly the 'when' part.
16:48 @Buffy2: The hard thing for some traders though is to remember that is the forecasting cap and take it off and put trading cap on and trade what you see not what you think
http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips33.htm#Trading
16:48 Ensign Howard: Good point buffy.
16:49 Ensign Howard: And I saw Larry doing that switch with great skill, and possibly the audience did not realize how fluid he was.
16:50 Ensign Howard: Basically, he would look for key times of the day from the NN curve, and at those times then change caps to have on the trading cap to see if the patterns, ratios, and price levels were all to his liking, and then he would do his execution because of the harmony with what he is comfortable with.
16:50 Ensign Howard: if it lacked the needed harmony, he would pass because there are plenty of other formations to consider. Like I wrote in the article, he might be watching 10 formations, see 5 with harmony. He wanted in 5 and get filled on 3 of the 5 attempted orders.
16:52 Ensign Howard: So your analogy about a forecasting cap, being switched to a trading cap, is a good expression of what I would see Larry do.
6:52 Ensign Howard: Those who trade with less confidence than Larry has, perhaps want the forecasting tool to be a tool with greater accuracy than the tool offers. They want the tool to be right all the time because they do not want to do any thinking, or manage any of the risks involved, etc. Too often the insecure trader wants to surrender all decisions to the computer's signals, and then if things do not work out, it is the computer that can be blamed.
16:55 Ensign Howard: Anyway, you all have much you can contribute to the conversation on this kind of a discussion, but we should move along.
Forex Data
6:56 Ensign Howard: In the programming department, the past couple of weeks have been busy for us as we have been making additional great strides in our efforts to bring on-line the FXCM forex data feed.
16:57 Ensign Howard: This version is in Alpha testing, which means that only my staff has this version. We are making too many changes still as we polish off observations or bugs. In another couple weeks, we might be ready for some beta testers, which is the point where we will invite a few to help with testing. This connection form illustrates where we are headed with the forex feed.
16:58 swade: What is FXCM please?
16:58 Ensign Howard: FXCM is a forex brokerage, one of the largest in the world.
16:58 swade: Thanks
16:59 Ensign Howard: We are getting a real-time data feed from them to our server, and then all Ensign users will connect to the Ensign server to get the real-time feed. This is a superior implementation than 99% of the other forex feeds in that it is real-time updating of forex quotes, and not a snap shot every 30 seconds or so like some other feeds. And we will have refresh capability as well.
17:00 Ensign Howard: Note the use of a separate frame for the Forex Currencies on the form.
17:00 Ensign Howard: The intent is that if you want the forex feed, just check the box, and Ensign will process the FXCM feed in parallel with the data feed you use for everything else. So if you are an eSignal user, or IB users, or IQFeed user, you continue with those feeds and connections and symbol lists just like you do now. And with the FXCM box checked, additional currency pairs will be process in parallel.
17:02 Ensign Howard: The FXCM symbol set is a fixed set of 42 currency pairs. Thus you do not have these symbols on your Setup | Manager list.
17:03 Ensign Howard: The Manager list will continue to be used for your vendor's symbols. The Forex market group quote page will look like this.
17:04 Ensign Howard: The entire page is 42 currency pairings or symbols.
17:04 Ensign Howard: Our FXCM symbol will have the + appended to the end, so the symbol is unique from the ones from eSignal and IB.
17:05 Ensign Howard: You can have forex from IQFeed, IB, and eSignal as well, and those symbols will be different, and can show on the quote page and make charts right along side of the FXCM symbols.
17:05 Ensign Howard: I imagine some will have both, and do side by side comparisons.
17:06 Ensign Howard: The FXCM feed will be 'free', ie. included in the base cost of Ensign which is $39.95/mo. We do not have to charge for the FXCM feed, nor do they require that you are an FXCM customer. They are providing a single connection to our server, and it is Ensign server that then handles the thousands that will connect to the server to get this feed.
17:07 Ensign Howard: So, development of servers, connections between your computer and our server, as well as processing the feed and maintaining a refresh database has been a big project. We (Mike and I) have been working on this in earnest since June, and are past most of the hurdles. We are now polishing off punch list items.
17:10 Ensign Howard: This is an example of a currency pair, Euro against the Yen. Any questions?
17:10 Ensign Howard: I am sorry but have to cut the class short today....
17:10 @Buffy2: IB users tomorrow is rollover - so if you are using continuous symbol do not refresh past market open .....just a reminder.
17:11 Ensign Howard: Ok, thanks for attending class today.
17:11 @Buffy2: ok Howard thanks
17:11 Ensign Howard: Have a good week.... bye
17:11 makesownweather: Bye. :>
17:11 dblue: ;)))